One of the first
theories I ever heard about "why Donald Trump won the election" was
that, at the end of the day, Republicans would rather vote Republican, even
when their candidate is not particularly Republican on any major issue. Seen
from one angle - that the only thing Republicans stand for is being against
Democrats - this criticism strikes me as being unfair. Seen from another angle,
though - that "he may be a bastard, but he's our
bastard" - and it makes a little more sense.
Suppose that you
were like me in 2016, and you had no one good to vote for. In a choice between
two terrible candidates who will both make your life worse, but each perhaps in
their own unique way, the decision criteria shift away from the issues and toward
more petty concerns. For example, I know more than a few people who voted for
Trump mainly to spite Hillary Clinton and all those who desperately wanted her
to win. I don't condone spite, much less using it as a basis for national
political decision-making, but that doesn't mean people don't make decisions
based on spite. There was an old blog post from The
Last Psychiatrist that argued that if schools make grades basically
meaningless, then employers will start basing hiring decisions on things like
racial prejudice, since they have no useful way of using grades to make a
hiring decision. I don't doubt for a second that, absent a solid policy-making
argument for Hillary or Donald, many people just chose to vote "against
the woman" or "against the pig."
It's sad that
national politics has to come down to something like this, but that's the
direct consequence of a lobby-corrupted two-party government duopoly whose main
purpose is to enrich themselves at the expense of the taxpayer and at the price
of pandering to the public employment sector.
It isn't surprising,
then, that people would tend to lose interest in national elections and voter
turnout could be generally pretty low. I looked into the data and found voter
turnout to be roughly flat for the last 100 years, so even despite cataclysms
like World War II and the Great Depression, and even the Civil Rights Movement,
people have about as little faith in politicians as ever. I think many of us
see through the charade. Out of that enlightened population, a few become
anarchists, a few more become insufferable cynics, and the vast majority become
people who would just rather go home and read a book.
Losing interest and
going off to do something more productive is precisely the best response to
this kind of futility. If the average person can't move the political needle in
any positive direction without doing even worse damage, then clearly the best response
is to hold a Mario Kart tournament in your game room with beer and pizza. It
may be sub-optimal, but it's Pareto
sub-optimal. (That's a joke, folks. I know that I'm describing an optimum.
Don't @ me.)
But the hallmark of
a great economic mind is that such a mind will think at the margins, no matter
how bad the margins get. Just because you're circling the drain doesn't mean
you can't circle it a little better; just because the odds of disaster are 98:1
doesn't mean they couldn't be 97:1 with a little creative thinking. We just
have to ensure that the cost of going from 98 to 97 isn't higher than the
opportunity cost. For most people, the opportunity cost is a foregone Mario
Kart tourney, and is thus too steep. For a very few of us, it involves much
smaller shifts in perspective.
How do you know
which group you're in? Pay attention to the conversations you're having. If
your political discussions tend to be highly partisan in nature, and to re-hash
a lot of the same points again and again, the odds are pretty good that you
should be playing more Mario Kart. If your political discussions tend to be had
with very learned people who are experts in their field and who respond to you
in long form rather than short form, then you're probably in the latter
category of people who can afford to try to push the needle in a positive
direction.
Push the needle in a
positive direction by arguing at the margins. You'll probably never convince
your friend that taxation is a form of theft, but you could probably very
easily sway him to reconsider the worthiness of a new tax. You might never
convince someone to change from one stance on abortion to another, but put to
him a pretty good case for why a new abortion law should be tweaked slightly
toward your end of the spectrum.
And if you can't,
just stop talking and go play some Mario Kart instead.
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